Guess which one does better against Hillary?

One of the main arguments that Donald Trump supporters make as to why they support him is the claim that he’ll be a more formidable candidate against Hillary in a general election match up.

They make the argument that he is the only one who can beat Hillary and they base that on the assumption that he’ll bring cross-over votes from folks who are not involved in politics, but will appeal to Trump because he is a celebrity and a sort of a pop-culture figure in the media.

While it is true that Trump will likely get folks to vote for him because of his fame and his high name I.D., that might be off-set by millions who may stay home on election day for the same reasons several million stayed home last time in 2012, which ultimately disadvantaged Mitt Romney and helped Obama.

The reason behind millions staying home would be a lack of confidence that Donald Trump, just like Romney before him, is not who he says he is and may not push a true constitutional conservative agenda as President.

Many of these same people who support Trump claim that for the opposite reasons Ted Cruz cannot win against Hillary! Many claim that Cruz cannot win a general, because according to them, he is too conservative and too divisive of a figure, as they would put it. They also make the claim that he cannot appeal to independents.

I will now explain why folks who think this way are dead wrong! First and foremost, they are making a major incorrect assumption! They are assuming and buying in to the media and the Washington elite narrative that elections are won and lost on who can appeal to the mushy middle!

Contrary to what most political consultants believe, electoral success has almost nothing to do with who can win over the so-called independent vote! Rather, elections are won and lost almost entirely on which party can get most of their base out to the polls on election day!

To prove this point, in 2012, Mitt Romney actually won a plurality of the so-called independents and beat Obama in most of the swing states with those voters. Yet as we all know, Romney lost to Obama by several points overall!

That was also the same year, as I cited earlier, when over 3 million conservative leaning voters stayed home. Some claim that most of those 3 million stayed home because of Romney’s Mormonism, which I think is non-sense. The fact that Romney was a Mormon probably accounted for a quarter, at the most, of those who sat it out, but the majority stayed home because Mitt Romney was not a conservative and couldn’t inspire support from folks who put principle above politics and party loyalty.

These folks, which included evangelicals, die-hard Tea Partiers, Reagan Democrats, and working class no party preference voters, stayed home because they really had no motivation to vote for a man who once instituted the very same government-run healthcare program as Obamacare in his home state as Governor.

My argument then as it is today is that ONLY a conservative can beat Hillary! Only a conservative nominee can drive every faction of the conservative base to enthusiastically go to the polls and support that nominee!

Conservative voters, which include many Independents and decline to state voters like myself, will ONLY be motivated to show up at the polls and perhaps even volunteer for the campaign of a principled and sincere conservative! Someone they can trust and someone who has a proven track record, outside of the rhetoric and tough talk, who has stood in the gap for their principles time and again!

I think there is ONLY one candidate in this race who meets that description and there is only one person in this race who actually has conservative deeds and accomplishments to match his campaign words!

It appears, if you study the Real Clear Politics polling data below, that those who claim that Trump can win against Hillary, and that Cruz cannot, are dead wrong!

It is important to note that by looking at these head-to-head match-ups, that no one on either side walks away with this election! However, I show it to demonstrate that Ted Cruz, according to the polling data, appears to do much better than Trump against Hillary and even does much better than all the other RINO’s, including folks like Jeb and Kasich. Polling data against Sanders shows similar results.

As we continue down the path of the primary season and look forward to beating Hillary next Fall, it is important that we drop many of the assumptions that we make on who can win and who can’t in a general election.

So far, the polls indicate that Hillary, at best, would tie with Cruz, while Trump seems to lose to her by a couple of points. Read below.

I think history is our best indicator and history clearly shows that conservatives, like Reagan showed us almost forty years ago, are the most likely candidates to win against the Democrat in a general  because they are the ones who can rally the base and get folks to show up at the polls who otherwise would simply stay home! It really is just that simple! Ted Cruz for President!  

 

(General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Poll

Date

Sample

MoE

Clinton (D)

Trump (R)

Spread

RCP Average

12/10 – 12/23

46.3

41.3

Clinton +5.0

Rasmussen Reports

12/22 – 12/23

1000 LV

3.0

37

36

Clinton +1

CNN/ORC

12/17 – 12/21

927 RV

3.0

49

47

Clinton +2

Quinnipiac

12/16 – 12/20

1140 RV

2.9

47

40

Clinton +7

FOX News

12/16 – 12/17

1013 RV

3.0

49

38

Clinton +11

PPP (D)

12/16 – 12/17

1267 RV

2.8

46

43

Clinton +3

ABC News/Wash Post

12/10 – 12/13

851 RV

4.0

50

44

Clinton +6

All General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Polling Data

General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton

Poll

Date

Sample

MoE

Clinton (D)

Cruz (R)

Spread

RCP Average

12/6 – 12/21

45.6

45.0

Clinton +0.6

CNN/ORC

12/17 – 12/21

927 RV

3.0

46

48

Cruz +2

Quinnipiac

12/16 – 12/20

1140 RV

2.9

44

44

Tie

FOX News

12/16 – 12/17

1013 RV

3.0

45

45

Tie

PPP (D)

12/16 – 12/17

1267 RV

2.8

45

43

Clinton +2

NBC/WSJ

12/6 – 12/9

849 RV

3.4

48

45

Clinton +3

All General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton Polling Data

(SOURCE: RealClearPolitics.com)

By: Kelly R. Hubbard

About Kelly Hubbard

Kelly Hubbard is a long time O.C. Patriot/Conservative Activist who is known for his tough no non-sense vetting of candidates and diligent research on the issues of concern to Tea Partiers in Orange County and throughout the state. Kelly blogs on a whole range of national, state, and local political news, with an emphasis on elections and candidates. You can read many of Kelly's posts right here exclusively on O.C. Tea Party blog and we encourage you to share them with others.

One Response to “Guess which one does better against Hillary?”

  1. Marilyn says:

    I think Cruz will do well. I’m eagerly awaiting the upcoming Primaries–and praying!!!

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